Sometimes things happen in adjacent markets or industries that can impact us in unexpected ways. I’m a product person, not a finance person. But part of our role as product people should be to look around corners even if they’re a bit outside our typical realm. To try to understand what’s coming next. Because macro trends, (or as author John Naisbitt called them way back in 1988, Megatrends), are things we can take advantage of or potentially be crushed by.
What’s happening with global finance could easily impact a lot of our products. Especially in terms of how we handle payments, crypto, AI and any international interactions. I’ve noticed some finance types talking about the potential for de-dollarization due to crypto trends. But I think a lot of what I’ve seen is missing an entirely separate, but related, trend in AI. Specifically, trends in agent capabilities that could be a major catalyst for acceleration in crypto financial capabilities.
As I’ve been working a bit with both blockchain and crypto technology, I’m noticing more of a convergence. Or maybe a collision, of two formerly somewhat separate industries. In blockchain, ERC-4337, Account Abstraction, we’re going to see more functional crypto wallets. (Plain language takeaway: We’ll see easier to use tools for doing crypto things.) And we also have EIP-7521, “The Intent Standard.” (Plain language takeaway: This is a structured format for expressing user “intents” in Ethereum-like environments. So instead of submitting exact transaction steps, users express desired outcomes (e.g., “swap 1 ETH for best available USDC”), and decentralized solvers determine the optimal execution path. Again, a major jump in ease of use.) As well, we’re seeing maturing tools and services for institutional players as more start to realize, “like it or not, ready or not, we’re going to have to play here.”
Next up… In AI, we have attempts, (still nascent), battling over MCP (Multi-Agent Communication Protocol). There’s no standard here yet. (Plain language takeaway: This will enable AI agents to exchange structured messages, coordinate actions, and collaborate across systems in a consistent, interoperable way.)
I’m sensing, (or at least, this is my thesis here), when these things grow up a bit, they will potentially cause, (or at least enable), a drastic acceleration of de-dollarization.
So What Does this Have to Do With the Global Order of Finance?
It’s always been a big question: at what point does a country’s deficit truly become catastrophic? Not just another recession. Not a cyclical correction or a technical depression. But something deeper. An irreversible, seismic realignment of the global financial order. Historically, many nations have faced sovereign defaults or currency collapses. But not the United States. The enduring power of the U.S. dollar backstopped by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. government and its role as the world’s reserve currency has always seemed to insulate the country from such fate.
But that foundation is now under pressure.
A shift is in the wind. And like most macroeconomic avalanches, it could arrive slowly, then all at once.
There’s three main reasons why, the first two of which are old news…
- Deficit Level: The level of the deficit itself is at inane levels, exceeding $34 trillion and growing faster than GDP. This is obviously well-known, often discussed/debated, and then conveniently ignored. This is old news. But the U.S. has always been able to finance obligations cheaply due to the dollar’s reserve currency status. This seems more fragile if that status starts to wobble. While this is an old story, what’s new seems to be the potential viability of alternatives.
- Geopolitical Shifts in Trade Currencies: For decades, oil was priced in dollars, sovereign reserves were held in dollars, and international trade settled in dollars. But the weaponization of the dollar via sanctions and financial exclusion has accelerated moves by rival nations to create non-dollar trade channels. For example, Russia and China have been actively developing settlement mechanisms outside of SWIFT. These started as clunky workarounds. They are evolving into fully operational alternatives. Early versions of “barter-style” arrangements, (such as oil for grain, gas for gold, were economically inefficient and logistically painful. But digital assets are changing this game. Stablecoins, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and decentralized networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum are being quietly used to settle high-value trades in bilateral arrangements. These aren’t theoretical edge cases. They’re happening today. (Check out Project mBridge launched in 2021 between the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates.)
The problem? The infrastructure is still immature. But that’s changing. Fast. - Crypto and AI Convergence: From an infrastructure perspective, ease of use of crypto, (at the institutional level), and the means to programmatically transact, (via agentic AI tools), is maturing fast. New standardization protocols for crypto across multiple blockchains and a nascent standard for AI agents could be a major step-change in capabilities.
What’s holding back this storm?
Maybe not much. But part of it is that all the mechanisms to trade outside of typical traditional finance are still immature. That is what’s changing fast.
What is De-Dollarization?
De-dollarization refers to the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade, reserves, and financial systems. While the dollar still accounts for ~60% of global reserves, its share is steadily declining. De-dollarization is not just a shift in currency preference. It’s a rewiring of global trust, transaction mechanisms, and political alignments. The IMF labeled the chart stealth erosion.
See Also:
De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance?
Hilbert Group CEO says ‘de-dollarization’ is crypto’s opportunity
Digital (De)Dollarization?
Crypto and AI Rapid Maturity
Until recently, crypto was dismissed as speculative noise. And AI was viewed as futuristic promise.
That’s over.
Crypto Maturity
Crypto is no longer a hobbyist’s playground. It’s transacting trillions per year across exchanges, wallets, remittance systems, and institutional rails. Stablecoins alone facilitate billions in daily settlement. Cross-border remittances, formerly charged 5–10% fees and held hostage by banking hours, are now instant, global, and nearly free.
What changed?
Protocols and wallet standards are maturing. Ethereum’s ERC standards, Bitcoin’s upgrades, and the emergence of “intent-based” transaction design where users express desired outcomes rather than micromanaging every step are making crypto user-friendly and interoperable.
We’re not far from a world where sending $10M across borders will feel as seamless as sending an email. (Though sure, okay, you need to get $10M first. Maybe let’s just call it $20.)
Now think about this… Elimination of costs and latency can potentially unlock stunning amounts of value.
Consider the hidden tax imposed by legacy financial infrastructure: wire fees, currency conversion spreads, settlement delays, compliance bottlenecks, and capital inefficiencies caused by having to park liquidity in multiple jurisdictions. These frictions are tolerable when you’re moving $100. Maybe. For less privileged folks trying to send remittances “back home” they’re significant percentages of the total transaction. For larger entities, they’re systemic liabilities when you’re moving billions.
Now imagine a world where these frictions collapse to near-zero.
When a multinational company can settle payroll, vendor contracts, and intercompany transfers instantly across dozens of currencies with near-zero fees, working capital is liberated. Treasury operations transform from reactive to real-time. Entire layers of financial intermediaries from correspondent banks, clearinghouses, to foreign exchange can be bypassed or radically streamlined.
At a macro level, this means global commerce can move faster and cheaper. Small businesses in emerging markets gain access to capital and global customers without needing a relationship with a New York or London-based bank. Supply chains can execute payments at the point of delivery, not weeks after with a reconciliation team chasing invoices.
Let’s try two simple examples: Consider a freelance web developer in South America working with U.S. clients and she bills $3,000 this month. Whether getting paid via PayPal or Western Union or similar, she may lose up to 10% in fees and may wait up to days. With crypto? Practically instant payment and close to zero fees. Let’s say a small garment exporter in southeast Asia ships clothes to a boutique retailer in Europe. They wait 30-60 days for payment via banks and lose 2% – 5% in fees and wire costs. Again, vs. almost instant and near zero fees. These businesses don’t really get richer, but they don’t have to wait to reinvest, or provide for their families. It’s working capital that’s unlocked in real time.
This is not just cost savings. It’s a structural expansion of economic possibility. The removal of transactional drag, what economists call “deadweight loss”, can reallocate trillions into productive use. It can raise GDP not through more work, but through better flow. (Thought it’s hard to say for sure it’s “trillions” as calculating this is really complex. It’s hard to even find good references for global estimates. But it’s a lot.)
In short: for this use case crypto’s real value isn’t speculative at all. It’s infrastructural. And once the rails are in place, money won’t just move faster, it will move differently.
AI Maturity
Now layer in AI.
LLMs (Large Language Models) are already being used in domains from customer service to contract analysis. (And sure, for some kids have a new way to cheat on book reports.) But the real shift comes from agentic AI. This is where autonomous systems take action across multiple tools, APIs, and protocols to accomplish goals without explicit human micromanagement.
Want to book a freight shipment, hedge currency exposure, and confirm regulatory compliance? A single AI agent could feasibly do that. These agents are quickly evolving from toys to personal assistants or co-workers. (I’ve been seeing memes on LinkedIn and elsewhere that basically say, “you’re job might not be replaced with AI, but you will likely at least be working with one.) One main bottleneck? Lack of standard frameworks to let them coordinate with one another and with financial infrastructure.
That’s changing.
The emerging protocol landscape, such as experimental projects like Multi-Agent Communication Protocols (MCP), and more, will give these agents a shared language. Once that settles in, agents will move from niche productivity enhancers to systemic economic participants.
Perfect Storm of Protocol Stabilization
There’s an old joke about computer standards of various sorts. It goes something like, “Why is computer technology all over the place? Can’t we just standardize some of these things?” The answer is, “Of course! We LOVE standards! That’s why we have so many!”
What’s happening right now between crypto and AI will soon reach a new breakout tipping point.
On the Crypto side, there’s more standardization in terms of wallets and how they interact with blockchains, including issues of identity. It has been and continues to be challenging for the various blockchain stack components to interact. But new standards regarding “intent” capabilities are bumbling their way towards standardization.
Meanwhile, in the AI world, we are coalescing around multi-agent orchestration, inter-agent communication, and integration layers.
What happens when financial protocols and cognitive protocols interoperate seamlessly?
We get autonomous agents capable of initiating and settling international transactions, negotiating contracts, and optimizing trade routes, all in real time. These agents will live on permissionless rails, immune to geographic borders and legacy friction.
Regulators can and will impose controls. But those controls will function at the endpoints: on-ramps, off-ramps, and custodians. The core technology stack? It’s indifferent. It obeys code, not policy.
So What is De-Dollarization, Really?
At its core, de-dollarization isn’t just about nations switching currency preferences. It’s about the unbundling of financial power from a single geography.
Historically, the U.S. dollar’s dominance was backed by:
- A large, liquid bond market
- Deep trust in U.S. legal frameworks
- Military might and geopolitical reach
- Lack of alternatives
What crypto and AI are doing together is building those alternatives.
Crypto creates synthetic global settlement layers. AI agents create autonomous market participants. Combined, they build a financial mesh network that routes around the dollar by design, not rebellion.
It’s not personal. It’s math.
The question is: “Is it a problem or an opportunity?” The answer is likely both, but it will depend whom you talk to.
Timing: This Will Happen Gradually, Then Suddenly
We tend to overestimate short-term disruption and underestimate long-term inevitability. But this isn’t one of those times.
The technology is already here. Adoption is growing fast. The moment the infrastructure hits critical maturity when AI agents can reason, transact, and self-correct on crypto rails, we’ll see an explosion of parallel finance outside the dollar system.
That won’t kill the dollar overnight. But it will erode its exclusivity. And when enough trade, investment, and trust can flow through new rails? This long time stability changes to a new reality.
This is my premise anyway. I’ve never really been a “crypto maxi.” But these things seeming to line up together is pushing me somewhat more in that direction.
Implications for the U.S.: From Issuer to Competitor
The U.S. has long held an unparalleled economic advantage: it issues the world’s reserve currency. This position has allowed the U.S. to run massive deficits, borrow at favorable rates, and exert disproportionate geopolitical influence through the dollar’s role in global trade and finance. (Just a fun historical note: I’ve seen theories that we originally got here thanks to France. That’s right. France loans financed the Revolutionary War, (along with Spain and the Dutch.) When the U.S. honored it’s wartime debts, it created early international trust in U.S. creditworthiness. This lead to a stable bond market and build of a central bank plus European investors. The rest is, obviously literally in this case, history. I’m not entirely sure this is true, but it seems like a good story.)
Anyway, back to our story… In a world where crypto-native systems and AI-driven agents increasingly handle cross-border settlement without ever touching dollars or banks, that privilege is no longer guaranteed. The result would likely be reduced demand for U.S. Treasuries, thus weakening demand for U.S. debt and would raise long-term interest rates at the same time government borrowing needs would increase. Not a good position. Meanwhile, sanctions power on the part of the U.S. and allies would be greatly lessened. So basically, a major non-military geo-political pressure tool would be curtailed or eliminated.
Here’s the thing. Some countries certainly want this to happen for political competitive reasons. But really, it’s just going to happen in a global pursuit of efficiency. The other impacts are almost by accident. Kind of collateral damage. This is why some believe, (myself included), if the U.S. fails to recognize this and over-regulates crypto and AI agents at home while adversaries or neutral players embrace them abroad, the U.S. risks becoming a spectator to the next financial world. The old saying about the internet and censorship was that the internet routes around it. The same is true here. Innovation doesn’t wait for regulatory clarity. It routes around it.
Some large scale trends here may be challenging to avoid. If interested in learning a lot more about macro trends, consider Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, by Ray Dalio. It’s a sobering read. He might not be correct about some of his thoughts. But if comparing the ideas of typical economists vs. a multibillionaire who earned success over a long time period building a massive hedge fund might be worth considering.
What should the U.S. Do? Compete, Not Retreat
Rather than resist, the U.S. must lead. This means:
- Encouraging responsible innovation in AI and crypto, not stifling it with outdated rules.
- Developing a regulatory framework that distinguishes between harmful activity and beneficial infrastructure.
- Exploring dollar-denominated stablecoins and CBDC models that extend the dollar’s relevance into new digital ecosystems.
- Investing in AI-finance integration that ensures U.S.-based tools and platforms remain foundational in agentic global trade.
The dollar won’t disappear overnight. But neither will it remain dominant by default. The coming decade will be defined by those who build the next rails of commerce and those who cling to the old ones.
What About the Digital Products We Build?
Any of us building digital products should be keeping a close eye on how all this develops. We’re going to need to embed at least some aspects of these technologies to stay relevant. I don’t know when these things will occur. Or even if. Finance folks have been talking about this for some time. I just see acceleration potentially happening due to the convergence of the technologies I’ve mentioned. I could be wrong about all of this. It’s just something I happened to notice and I think it might be about to be a very big deal. Let me know what you think.